UFC 128 - Jones vs Shogun

A title fight. It’s what every fighter dreams of as a child. It’s also usually an opportunity that most don’t receive until they are far from a child. Jon “Bones” Jones has come a long way from a child growing up in Endicott, New York, but he is only four years out of his teens.
UFC 128 showcases two outstanding talents in Jon Jones, and light heavyweight titleholder Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Both have a lot in common. They are both outstanding, explosive strikers. Jon Jones has the opportunity to be the youngest UFC Light Heavyweight Champion in history, and Shogun won his PRIDE title at the same age as Jones is now, 23.
Both are known as finishers. Shogun has finished almost 85 percent of his fights before the final bell, and Jones has finished 10 of his 12 winning fights. The two fights that Jones didn’t finish, he dominated. He executed many judo and wrestling throws from inside the clinch. Jones will have to be careful if he wants to try and throw Shogun from the clinch. As a matter of fact, he may want to avoid the clinch in general. Shogun is possibly one of the best clinch fighters in the UFC. No one can compare to the skills of Anderson Silva, but Shogun gives it a real shot.
Shogun has incredible drive. It is shown in the terrible onslaughts that he unleashes at opponents. It may seem uncontrolled, but a veteran, Shogun plans every single attack. The key here for Jones, is to utilize his incredible wrestling. If Shogun rushes forward for a flurry, the best counter is to take him down, eliminating his striking game. With a well-rounded fighter like Shogun though, it’s pick your poison.
While Shogun has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, he hasn’t been known to submit opponents. He has only one submission victory, a revenge fight over Kevin Randleman who had beaten Shogun’s brother, Murilo.
Jon Jones can dominate from inside anyone’s guard as he showed in his fight against Brandon Vera. Vera isn’t nearly as talented off of his back as Shogun, but he does hold a black belt himself. Jones has the ability to end the fight from any position on the ground. Jones cannot and should not try to stand with Shogun. If he does, it will be a short night for the 23-year old. The game plan for Jones should be to get Shogun to the ground, land some strikes from his guard, and advance his position when he feels he can end the fight.
For Shogun, the plan is simple, to stay off of his back. Land strikes from your feet, be aggressive, but do not get taken down. If Shogun’s back hits the mat, the fight is over. This presents a major problem for Shogun, as his takedown defense is the worst part of his incredibly solid game. The way he stands is ideal for landing quick combinations, but does little for him in the way of keeping him upright. Shogun’s only takedown defense from this stance is a knee. If Jones isn’t careful in his approach to the takedown, he could quickly find himself eating a powerful knee.
Jones is a very simple fighter; his game plan is relatively the same for every fight. Get the takedown and land elbows till your opponent’s face resembles a pancake. He does a lot of flashy, unorthodox striking that while powerful, will not work against one of the sports most seasoned veterans in Shogun. Shogun will take advantage of any of the crazy moves if he chooses to pull them, and if Jones clinches up with him, he may get knocked out. Jones is one of the best fighters at 205 pounds, but he will lose his first attempt at a title. Shogun is as motivated as anyone in the UFC to keep his title in such a wide-open division, and his superior game planning will be the X factor. The short layoff between the Bader fight and the Shogun fight for Jones won’t matter, Bader barely even made Jones sweat. Jones just isn’t multifaceted the way Shogun is. Look for Shogun to finish this fight in the start of the second round via TKO.